I bet a bunch of Africans during the ice age thought that there was no arable land under the glaciers in Britain. But when the ice melted, boy did they look silly.
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The trouble is that stupid people are way harder to predict than smart people. Like I work with a lot of very smart, hard-working people. It's pretty easy to figure out what they'll do. My dumbass cousin? Dude's a loose cannon, I got no idea.